As this is election year and these elections are going to be very important for future of India.
After end of Jan 2014: First month of Election year ends and currently its advantage BJP.
AAP:
When new year started, AAP was in full swing and its popularity was rising exponentially. After first 2 weeks of January, AAP started to become strong contender against BJP especially in urban regions. As Congress is already on losing side before the polls (but you can't rule out them as still 3 months to poll), BJP surely expected to win.
AAP's popularity was warning sign for BJP but few things in last two weeks made them feel more relax.
So what went wrong for AAP:
1. Somnath bharti episode
2. AAP dharna ( if intention of dharna was for delhi police under delhi govt instead of action against officers in khirki incident, it would have been positive in the eye of common people)
3. Focus on media attention instead of governance.
4. Too early entry in Lok Sabha poll campaign. If they govern delhi well till march and really show people of good governance, people oriented policies then they still have good chance.
Right now, they should focus only on delhi and solve as many problems as possible or at least show their intentions of good governance.
I still dont understand why they want to continue with somnath bharti if they say that they are not in power to become ministers. Don't they have another good option available to replace Mr. Bharati? It sends bad message that people in AAP also want to stick to ministerial chairs.
BJP:
They have really strong PM candidate Narendra Modi. They managed to bury all the differences in party and looks like a cohesive unit.
Failure of central government on corruption, price rise, indecisiveness, fall in growth is major advantage for BJP.
Modi has a vision of development and proven track record of Gujarat development. I never visited gujarat but every friend of mine who visited there tells about developments in gujarat.
But there are few negative points as well. Many people hate him because of his so called possible involvement in 2002 riots. But people forget that he always talk about inclusive development.
One more negative point which he rectified quickly was few mistakes in his earlier speeches about history. But his speeches in last one month are perfect. He has great number of followers and number is increasing day by day.
Big question is whether BJP achieve magic number of 272 (or even 220+).
Congress:
Oldest party of India is struggling this time because of their own mistakes. There is no chance of congress winning more than 125 seats at this moment. They can even go to double digit ie. less than 100.
Rahul gandhi started his political career with great hope to emerging india. He had golden opportunity to prove him when congress won in 2009. But he failed. His interview to Arnab last week was pathetic and total failure.
Only target for congress at this moment is to stop BJP below 200. Positive thing for congress in maharashtra is clean image of CM Prithviraj chavan. But they need more people like him. Nothing positive to talk at this moment for centre leadership.
Update about Shirur Lok Sabha constituency where I will vote : Shivsena-BJP candidate Mr. Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil of Shivsena is way ahead of all others and Congress-NCP is struggling to find right candidate to contest against him. His image is also good among people. So its advantage Shivsena-BJP in Shirur at this moment.
Other parties : Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Jagan in Andhra are winning in their states at this moment.
After end of Jan 2014: First month of Election year ends and currently its advantage BJP.
AAP:
When new year started, AAP was in full swing and its popularity was rising exponentially. After first 2 weeks of January, AAP started to become strong contender against BJP especially in urban regions. As Congress is already on losing side before the polls (but you can't rule out them as still 3 months to poll), BJP surely expected to win.
AAP's popularity was warning sign for BJP but few things in last two weeks made them feel more relax.
So what went wrong for AAP:
1. Somnath bharti episode
2. AAP dharna ( if intention of dharna was for delhi police under delhi govt instead of action against officers in khirki incident, it would have been positive in the eye of common people)
3. Focus on media attention instead of governance.
4. Too early entry in Lok Sabha poll campaign. If they govern delhi well till march and really show people of good governance, people oriented policies then they still have good chance.
Right now, they should focus only on delhi and solve as many problems as possible or at least show their intentions of good governance.
I still dont understand why they want to continue with somnath bharti if they say that they are not in power to become ministers. Don't they have another good option available to replace Mr. Bharati? It sends bad message that people in AAP also want to stick to ministerial chairs.
BJP:
They have really strong PM candidate Narendra Modi. They managed to bury all the differences in party and looks like a cohesive unit.
Failure of central government on corruption, price rise, indecisiveness, fall in growth is major advantage for BJP.
Modi has a vision of development and proven track record of Gujarat development. I never visited gujarat but every friend of mine who visited there tells about developments in gujarat.
But there are few negative points as well. Many people hate him because of his so called possible involvement in 2002 riots. But people forget that he always talk about inclusive development.
One more negative point which he rectified quickly was few mistakes in his earlier speeches about history. But his speeches in last one month are perfect. He has great number of followers and number is increasing day by day.
Big question is whether BJP achieve magic number of 272 (or even 220+).
Congress:
Oldest party of India is struggling this time because of their own mistakes. There is no chance of congress winning more than 125 seats at this moment. They can even go to double digit ie. less than 100.
Rahul gandhi started his political career with great hope to emerging india. He had golden opportunity to prove him when congress won in 2009. But he failed. His interview to Arnab last week was pathetic and total failure.
Only target for congress at this moment is to stop BJP below 200. Positive thing for congress in maharashtra is clean image of CM Prithviraj chavan. But they need more people like him. Nothing positive to talk at this moment for centre leadership.
Update about Shirur Lok Sabha constituency where I will vote : Shivsena-BJP candidate Mr. Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil of Shivsena is way ahead of all others and Congress-NCP is struggling to find right candidate to contest against him. His image is also good among people. So its advantage Shivsena-BJP in Shirur at this moment.
Other parties : Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Jagan in Andhra are winning in their states at this moment.
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